Our local and national leaders have claimed lately that the recession is slowing and the economy is starting to show signs of coming around. But they do so with caution.

President Obama is always cautiously optimistic about his economic success stories — the better to avoid the political pitfalls of a dangerously dynamic situation that could still get worse before it gets much better.

Locally, our city and school district have expressed confidence based on current surpluses. But that confidence, in both cases, came with a caveat: “… unless the state steals it,” or something to that effect.

Which is the best possible explanation for why the school district is beginning to consider an early retirement incentive plan for its teachers just weeks after announcing it has a $3 million surplus.

Yes, the surplus is there. But the school district has been burned by the state before — does last year ring a bell? — and more state budget cuts could come in January.

So if the teachers’ union and school board agree, the district is heading toward a plan that would pay a participating teacher a one-time amount based on 85 percent of his or her annual salary, spread out over a number of years.

It’d be a tough decision for teachers, as retiring would likely cause their health insurance costs to rise significantly, and the payments that come from the incentive program would either be small or short-lived, depending on the number of years the teacher chooses to spread them over.

It’s also an unfortunate situation for our school district, its schools and its students. You can bet that most of the teachers who choose to retire early would not be replaced, which prevents layoffs but ultimately has the same effect — either higher class sizes or fewer classes offered, both of which hurt students.

We’re happy to share in our leaders’ cautious optimism, but this early retirement incentive program is yet another clear sign that we have a long way to go before we’re out of this mess.